No. Some mathematician has said that the enjoyment lies in the search for truth, not in the finding it. Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina, Part Two, Section Fourteen, Constance Garnett translation
One thing that the Oracle of Ottawa is most certain of is that Canada has a lot of rocks. We have more rocks than oil, more rocks then the Arabs have sand, and more rocks then the Asians have rice. We have white rocks, black rocks and rocks in between that are every shade, hue, and pattern. We have hot rocks and cold rocks, soft rocks and hard rocks. Come to think of it we have more rocks than trees and Canada has trees up the ass.
Geothermal - The Next Big Thing?
It is most ironical that the line that the 'Harper Government' mocked the young Justin Trudeau the most over was his promise for a carbon tax and credit system if he ever formed government in October 2015. Well here we are only a few short months away and oil has tanked to under fifty dollars a barrel. And if the Americans cut a deal with the Iranians, all bets will be off, oil could scrape under ten dollars a barrel! Well so much for peak production and that it is all down hill from here...
It seems that it is even catching on out west. The oil industry is begging for a carbon tax and credit system. It is most likely that someone actually checked out the facts and rediscovered that Canada is a potential geothermal powerhouse of the world. And they know that this is a good ride of business, just ask anyone from Iceland! Those oil wildcatters never throw anything away, and that includes the memories of those many hot holes that never finished out to oil producers. Why sometimes the temperatures were in the hundreds of degrees.
When you come to think of it, geothermal and oil would go great together as a concurrent ongoing business model. When the oil price tanks, you could just go and work those hot holes, and it would be a great way to us up some of that stranded gas. You know a cogen turbine with geothermal assist. Plus the carbon credits of carbon free geothermal would certainly please the unit holders at dividend payout days! There could be a whole new industrial paradigm in the creation here...
While checking my page views on Google + on Sunday(last) at 7:00 p.m. (E.S.T.) I had 1,024,571 views. At 12:03 a.m. Monday I discovered that I only now had 964,924 views! The Oracle of Ottawa was shocked that my Google + account was now counting backwards. What ever could be the cause of that?
Freedom of Speech is now selective?
Well it just so happens that the Oracle of Ottawa was making some pretty cutting comments on videos that were describing that insane Alibaba initial public offering that went off last week on the New York Stock Exchange. The Oracle of Ottawa didn't agree with the whole thing at all.
We have all heard about Gresham's Law, which states basically that bad money drives out good money. Well the Oracle of Ottawa is smart enough to be able to project that a little farther and to come to the stark conclusion that bad securities on a once good stock exchange will drive away all the good stocks. When you are ready to allow old thing, no matter how big it is, for one dollar more, we are on a real slippery slope people.
Of course the whole thing was a rather strange glitch that I am sure the best and brightest at Google are on top of. But it does give one pause doesn't it? The Oracle can't but help feel that if I only commented on cute and cuddly kitten videos nothing regarding my page views would have occurred. But what ever you do, don't comment on peasant Chinese securities offerings of Variable Interest Entities on the New York Stock Exchange!
If you are not living under a rock, you don't need anyone to tell you that China has become, in recent times, a very large force in the world. This is of course going to be real trouble in the near future. A good way to understand this is to have a basic understanding of the history of China. The problem is that the peasants of the Peasants Republic of China has a history that covers roughly about eight thousand years.
Worried about China? Forget about it..
As a public service for his world wide readership the Oracle of Ottawa has been keeping an eye out for the perfect modern day summary that the modern busy person of today could read and benefit from. The problem with Chinese histories is that there is a lot of them and most of them are as boring and as dry as fried out area of hell. The ideal situation would be to discover one that was written by someone that was actually on the ground at the time of the big modern changes that we are all presently dealing with today.
It is all a pretty tall order, but the Oracle of Ottawa has discovered just the ticket recently, by total chance of course, while still ever working on his "thinking about thinking" project. The name of the work is: A History of Chinese Civilization by Jacques Gernet.(Second edition...) It is under 800 pages, but is the most readable history of Chinese civilization that the Oracle of Ottawa has ever seen. And for good measure the Oracle of Ottawa has read it and most heartily recommends it as the work that hits the spot.
The one you want...
The work has been translated into English and published by Cambridge University Press which is all that has to said as far as the bona fides are concerned. The book consist of eleven parts, broken into numerous chapters. After reading through it, the reader will have a very strong handle on what makes China tick, and why it ticks in the way it does. It explains most clearly the greatest weaknesses of China as a society in the modern world. The time period covered is from 8,000 B.C. up to 1989 A.D. with that nasty business in Tiananmen Square. The work is very well illustrated, with tons of summary facts and chronologies for handy quick reference.
This is a most useful work for persons that are thinking of investing and /or doing business in China. (Don't!) Or for people that just want to understand the evening news somewhat more clearly. The main idea is that China is totally different from the Western World. It explains why, and why it will never change. It also explains the great structural weaknesses that presently are built into Chinese society The Oracle of Ottawa has also included a video of another Canadian who has also been on the ground very recently and comes to pretty much the same conclusions as Gernet does but in an even more hard hitting way. Enjoy...
Our decisions matter. We can change the world. Keynes economic prescriptions reveal that as we make decisions we do change the world. Peter L. Bernstein, Against The Gods - The Remarkable Story Of Risk, p. 230
At the time of this writing there are 3,860 securities to pick from in Canada on the Consolidated Toronto Stock Exchange. If you live in the United States there are way over 10,000 securities to choose from on the three major markets. If you go into the pink sheets there are several thousand more to choose from. And the Oracle of Ottawa has heard that there is a ton of low hanging fruit still to be found on any given day.
Just Roll'em...
The Oracle of Ottawa cannot tell his Dear Readers from around the world, how many times he has held his fresh, new and very expensive copy of Investments by Bodie, Kane and Marcus in his left hand and his latest brokerage statement in his right hand only to be told by the standard book that what I did last month is totally impossible! Some day the Oracle of Ottawa is going to read that book and do it the "right way", but not today.
As a public service to my Dear Readers from around the world, the Oracle of Ottawa has decided that he is going to share with you basically how he picks a stock. It is a nine factor model of data that is commonly available on the internet for free. The Oracle of Ottawa has never paid for investment advice in his life, and neither should you Dear Reader.I will present my nine favorite factors with a link that will take into more detail. And some brief comments, that I have learned from having my own skin in the game for a number of years.
1./Share Price: The lower the better! Contrary to the assumed wisdom, you will not make very much from buying Apple at over $500.00 a share. The Oracle of Ottawa has found that the sweet spot is between two to ten dollars a share. As a matter of fact my first ten bagger was on a two dollar stock. The Oracle of Ottawa loves two dollar stocks. If you are tempted to follow the crowd, ask yourself, what will double first, a two dollar stock or a one hundred dollar stock? Think about it.
2./ Price/Earnings: Lower the better. Buy a dollars worth of earnings for as little as possible. There is no law against it, and forget the textbook.
3./ Dividend Rate: The higher the better. New studies by the people of the book have recently found that that high yielding stocks do the best! Never buy a stock in a company that doesn't comp you with a nice fat rate for just waiting. Contrary to the book, high yields abound in the markets, all you have to do is discover them. And yes there are many free lunches to be had in capitalism, Who knew?
4./Price/Sales: The lower the better. A low price sales ratio is a great indication of vigor. In Canada it is not uncommon to find price sales ratios way under 1.00. Would you believe 0.05 to 0.50 is pretty common? It is.
5./ Price/Book: The lower the better. There is nothing wrong with buying a dollar for fifty cents or even less. And contrary to the text book, these stocks are still out there in the market waiting to be discovered. So much for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis!
6./ Volume: The higher the better. Steadily rising daily volume is very bullish from my experience.
7./News: More positive news the better. A company with a clearly defined mission is very bullish indeed.
8./ Price/Cash Flow:The lower the better. (See the link...) The more money that is flowing through the company the better. A low ratio indicates wicked vigor.
9./ Beta: Doesn't make any difference. Beta is a lot like mutual fund performance. Past history is no indication of future performance. Trust the Oracle on this one. The Beta of a stock has made no difference to the Oracles historical performance. Don't let it get in your way.
The Oracle of Ottawa hopes that this will perform a much needed public service. And be very wary of academics who write about stocks and even win the Nobel Prize, and yet have never owned a stock in their own name in their life! Read their books for a laugh, then study the people who have actually went out and did it. You can't go wrong with those guys.
Better a small piece of a big pie, than a big piece of a small one. Calouste Gulbenkian, (Mr. Five Percent...)
It is Victoria Day here in Canada, the first long weekend of the summer season. And it was a perfect, pretty, blue and cool day. The Oracle of Ottawa thought that that was a most generous gift of the Gods, but it all got better as the Oracle of Ottawa watched his local old time vulgar media lunch time news. It was that clip from the daily State Department Press Briefing that announced the indictment of a wack of military officers from the great Peasants Republic of China. Needless to say it made the Oracle of Ottawa's day.
No Disneyland for you Wong Dong...
After the laughing stopped, the Oracle of Ottawa was pretty sure how the State Department actually linked each face to each computer. The stupid peasants left their web cams on as they were vandalizing assorted large American sites for for a free lunch. Yes Dear Reader, way out of control and way too much Deer Penis Wine, that shit will get you every time.
Actually the Oracle of Ottawa has been simply awed and amazed at the recent actions of the Peasants Republic of China in days as of late. What the hell are they trying to prove by strong arming a semi submersible off shore oil rig into hot contested waters off of Vietnam? Does it make any sense to anybody at all? It reminds the Oracle of Ottawa of a big yella dog that chases cars. If the car actually stops, what is that big yella dog going to do with it? Such are the risks of chasing the hubcaps of global hegemony!
Chinese HD-981 off of Vietnam..
As the Chinese are finding out at a very rapid rate, it sure sucks to be a peasant master of the universe. Who knew it would all be so much work and effort? Of course if the Peasant Republic wanted to really bring it, they would have formed a sweet joint venture with all the locals and played straight up. The Oracle knows this is true, you can learn a lot of things from Armenians of the recent past, see epigraph above.
But the part of the story that kept the Oracle of Ottawa glued to You-Tube for the last couple of days was the reaction of the "weak state" of Vietnam! They sure got the Peasants Republic of China's attention didn't they? It was all pretty unfortunate about the misidentified Koreans and Taiwanese though, but it proves the Oracle of Ottawa's point, even to Asians, they all look alike. If they can't tell each other apart, how would it be possible for a an old Gajin like the Oracle of Ottawa ever to learn? Ho! Ho!
The Oracle of Ottawa has taken a lot of heat in recent times of late as to opinions of the true motives of the Peasants Republic. Why some people have even hurt the Oracle of Ottawa's feelings by insisting that he was a bigot! Ouch, that hurt's. But today was the day when it all came together and proved that the Oracle of Ottawa was right all along. It would be all really great if this was the end of the matter, but the Oracle of Ottawa must inform his Dear Readers, that this is all just the start of much graver matters.
The discovery of happiness, like the discovery of new territory, is usually oblique. John Kay, Obliquity, p. 23
The hands down event of the week, without a doubt, has had to be the kick-off of the 2014 Ontario provincial election. It of course gained, right from the start, saturation old style vulgar media coverage. The Oracle of Ottawa loves that. That means that he can cover the said train wreck from the comfort of his secure bunker, located somewhere in Ottawa South. This is by far the greatest venue for a rock and roll roving reporter.
'Chain Gang' Tim Hudak - Party of One...
Right from the get - go the Oracle of Ottawa could not help but notice the actual excitement caused by the homily Kathleen Wynne. Damn! You would think she was a rock star or something. Every one of her events has scads of supporters in attendance. And they are not captive employees of some party member from the donors list. Why, one of the first places she came out to after the campaign started was Ottawa South, to the old riding office of Dalton McGuinty! The Oracle of Ottawa thought that was right bold. But you didn't hear the words "Gas plant", not even once. The ample excited crowd formed in over an hour in advance.
Andrea Horath - D'Ohhhh...
And it wasn't shit luck Dear Reader, the next day she packed out another event in downtown Ottawa at that new conference center. From the adulation that was being shown, the Oracle of Ottawa can only conclude that she was once Pierre Elliot Trudeau's old girl friend from the 1970's! But no Dear Reader, she just has that something. And she can get the voters out and up for it. It was great watching the clips of her sassing the 'Harper Government'! All in, a hell of good start to her majority government.
One of the biggest faux-pas's of the week had to go to Andrea Horwath, at the staged set up in the Tim Horton's coffee shop, somewhere in Ontario. The Oracle of Ottawa caught the gaff right away and just couldn't believe it. Your average awesome Canadian is about six feet tall, plus or minus a couple of inches. In Canada it is really really rare that you ever see a midget. It is even rarer still to see a midget from Asia, even in Ottawa! But if you are in a Tim Horton's and there are nine Asian midgets from the Phillipines behind the counters, barely tall enough to see over the cash register, you know right away that you are in a Tim Horton's staffed completely by Temporary Foreign Workers! That looked great to the Oracle of Ottawa. That once, the party of the working man, was now pitching in a business establishment that profits from indentured labour! What is the NDP staff on?
Earlier this after noon that Oracle of Ottawa was returning from his coveted Saturday routine, only to see on CTV News Network, the never ending clip of a "poll" of 825 Ontario voters that concluded that 'Chain Gang' Tim Hudak was leading in popularity for Premiere of Ontario! And that this was correct to an accuracy of +/ - 4%!! What was no doubt mentioned by the pollster was that it was only Tim Hudaks riding that was polled! Oh, and by the way, the undecided was pulling a strong fourth at 16%. When you are down to that desperate Hail Mary move in only the first week of the Campaign you are essentially fucked.
Right from the start the Hudak campaign faltered. The press was (rightly) all over the little man. There were no supporters in attendance. Just 'Chain Gang' Tim and his rag ass band of fart catchers. And that head fart catcher was so creepy that that the Oracle had to reach for his Ether and Nitrous Oxide mask! I had that Blue Velvet fear, all of a sudden. But the Oracle is alright know after a stern reading of a few chapters of Revelation... If all it cost to save Ontario from this moron, was a billion dollar gas plant move, the Oracle of Ottawa can only conclude that it was money very well wasted indeed.
The introduction of a substantial Government transfer tax on all
transactions might prove the most serviceable reform available, with a
view to mitigating the predominance of speculation in the United States. John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, p. 160
First of all, it should be called the Keynes Tax. But as James Tobin constantly pushed the idea through out his life time it came to be known in his name. The Oracle of Ottawa has provided the earliest reference of the idea. James Tobin first read Keynes book in 1936, and that is where he certainly got the idea. And it would be fitting that the idea of the greatest tax revenue generator of the future should go to it's true originator.
John Maynard Keynes
The main problem with implementing the Keynes tax is very strong resistance from the financial intermediaries. Better known to the average person as the banks. Of course they have darn near infinite resources and very strong lobbies at all levels of government. The very idea of someone else giving them a haircut sends them into total war mode.
Much to the Oracle of Ottawa's surprise, the Keynes tax has been implemented in Sweden during the 1980's only to be repealed in the early 1990's. The financial institutions started rerouting the trades and flows around the single agent. Therefore it becomes clear that the tax must be pushed onto the financial institutions, and not just at one place, but at several key places all at the same time. At the time of this writing it is being planned by France and Germany together. If Canada and the United States came on board at the same time that would be it. It would get done.
The pull part of the implementation would come from government in the form of moral suasion. As the Keynes tax is introduced by representative governments, it must also in unison drop capital gains tax rates on the banks customers. Then the banks will have to fight the governments and their own customers! It will not be long before they see the light.
Of course than you have deal with the next objection. What about the tax havens? Well Dear Reader, the thing about most tax havens is that the banking only benefits a very small number of people. And once the residents realize what revenues their respective governments are giving up, each tax haven will fall into line one by one. If worse come to worse they can also be dealt with with extreme prejudice.
The Oracle of Ottawa first came across Thomas Piketty at his local Chapters retailer. There was a dozen brand new hard cover copies of Capital in the philosophy section. Go figure, the Oracle of Ottawa can only surmise that Heather Reisman does not want what is between the covers to become common knowledge in Canada. The book is beautifully printed by the same publisher that published the works of John Rawls, Harvard Press. At just under 700 pages it could also hold up a pretty large window or stop a very large door.
Thomas Piketty at Cambridge...
The Oracle knows that the main push of the book is about economic inequality, but the Oracle of Ottawa bought the book for the insights into the actual mechanics of capitalism itself. As an avid stock picker you can't know too much about the actual workings of capitalism.The writing style is very easy to read and absorb.The two laws of capitalism are worth the price of the book.
At the time of this writing Capital is number two in Amazons Top 100 Books list! It was number one until just recently. It has come up in the Province of Ontario election already. Which is not hard to understand, since Kathleen Wynne is no doubt an avid reader. The NDP were too busy singing Koom By Ya and the Conservatives never read books at any time, hence Kathleen Wynne has a pretty big edge with this monster tome under her belt.
This Thomas Piketty lad has learned all about academia very young. He got his Phd. at the age of twenty two! He was awarded the prize for the most promising young economist in France in 2002. Just come up with a theory that cannot be entirely proved or disproved. You get to be a legend by default. Just like Sigmund Freud. Whatever works....
The Oracle of Ottawa's favorite economists are John Maynard Keynes and Karl Marx, as all my many international readers already know. They too were fascinated with wealth and inequality. They were also obsessed with how wealth was created. And to study the acquisition of wealth they actually tried it themselves. Especially John Maynard Keynes. He got so good at it that his original portfolio is still compounding in timeless bliss at Cambridge. There was never any doubt about Keynes, he had a ton of his own skin in the game all his life. Thomas Piketty should try that, maybe his next book will be about as long as The General Theory instead of the length of Das Kapital Buch Ein....
Civic education needs to be part of every child's learning process, from early school through to higher education and beyond. David Held, Models Of Democracy, Third Edition, p. 251
It was Wednesday afternoon last. The time was 3:30 p.m., and the Oracle of Ottawa was quite enjoying watching the close of the trading day on the BNN network. It was a hell of a nice rally, well over seventy points, and there seemed to be "legs" for more before closing time at 4:00 p.m..Then out of the blue, BNN decided it would be nice to cut live to the Senate Banking Committee, where the head of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz was giving the scheduled update to the august Senators and members of Parliament.
Bank of Canada
It was the young and ardent Nathan Cullen that was asking the questions, and the Oracle of Ottawa was quite impressed at how pointed they were, while Stephen Poloz was not so much impressed. As he started to struggle to give an answer that matched the intelligence of the question, the Oracle of Ottawa could see that the market had already decided for the depth of Stephen Poloz' answer. Much to the horror of the Oracle of Ottawa the market shed over twenty points of the rally as the august Governor struggled. What really killed was the anxious grandma hand ballet, as you could sense the hapless Governor's frustration. Yes Dear Reader, the Bank of Canada has it's very own version of Joe Oliver.
Now Stephen Poloz is no Mark Carney. And as we all know Mark Carney is one of the elite. There is no dispute about that anywhere in the world today. The man had (has?) charisma. While Stephen Poloz is just someones brat. For all those that know of such things, the main reason that Mr. Carney had to bail from the Bank of Canada gig was that he made the boss and minions of the 'Harper Government' look like what they truly are, a bunch of hay seed rubes from Ducks Ass, Alberta. And of course, you guessed it, the 'Harper Government' is much more comfortable with Stephen Poloz.
Now the Oracle of Ottawa will concede that a lot of this rally loss was really caused by Nathan Cullen, who never meet a briefing book that he didn't like and read from the first page to the last. The Oracle of Ottawa can find no fault. But the Oracle realized that he is paying the Governors salary as it is with his tax dollars, the Oracle sees no reason why his stock portfolio has to also chip in!
The Oracle of Ottawa knows perfectly well that it is all right to bitch, but the real thing is to propose a solution. And the solution is Dear Readers, that the present Bank of Canada Governor should not be allowed to give testimony or attempt to give testimony while the capital markets are actually open. The Bank of Canada Governor should only be questioned after the markets are closed, that is in the evenings. Just like a government bringing down a budget.
Soon there will be the next Trudeau government. There will be a new Governor of the Bank of Canada at the first opportunity. The Oracle of Ottawa can only suggest that the present Bank Governor book his mover now to avoid the rush of the soon to come exodus of conservatives from Ottawa.
Rumors are only valuable when they are denied. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed Of Procrustes, p.33
At the time of this writing, the Russian stock market is only down about twenty percent so far this year. The Russian ruble (rubble?) is at all time lows. No doubt with the latest antics in Crimea, Russia's international credit rating will be harshly downgraded. Being a self proclaimed 'energy superpower' requires a constant ton of incoming international capital. It seems to the Oracle of Ottawa that it is all a pretty high price to pay for a sand spit salt water parking lot.
Putin - Dealing from a full deck?
Although the Putin spin and image department run full out to make the boss a he man to every man, he certainly needs at least a seminar on real estate appraisal. When you are on the outside looking in, all you can do a is shake your head and wonder if a good government driven mental health strategy for Russia's top leading lights would not be a better use of the tax payers funds.
The Oracle of Ottawa really hates to bring it up, but the whole situation is really starting to look like the "Guns of August" all over again. And it is the 100th anniversary this year. What goes around comes around. And how do you think this will all end at the end of the day Dear Reader? One wonders if the Russians will take kindly to their new diet of Chinese take out?
Once the big bad bear was really bad ass. Now all he wants to do it seems is shop at Wall Mart. The Oracle of Ottawa cant say for sure where this is all going, but he is saying this could all go nuclear on a bad day. And of course the world will still turn, and the environment will make a hell of a quick comeback, just with a lot less problems.
Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things. Adam Smith, Lecture, 1775, quoted by Dugald Stewart, Account of the Life and Writings of Adam Smith, Section IV, 25
It was a short time ago now, when the Oracle of Ottawa heard the young Justin Trudeau take a lot of heat by the members of the 'Harper Government', when he said right out loud that the budget will take care of itself. Now the Oracle of Ottawa knows that the young Justin is most certainly the 'Next One', and that what he just said was utter and proven truth. The Oracle of Ottawa had heard that line of thought before. It was mentioned by one of the great classical economists. The problem was that the Oracle could not remember which one it was.
Justin Trudeau is right. The budget Will take care of itself...
The answer came to the Oracle of Ottawa totally by accident and perhaps by Divine intervention, when by chance he was reading the 2005 edition of David N. Weill's most excellent book Economic Growth. The quote and author that the Oracle was seeking occurs on page 332, at the head of Chapter 12, the chapter on government. It was then a very easy step to source the quote perfectly at the Adam Smith Institute page that popped up with an elementary Google search.
What the young Justin took so much heat over, was indeed the same attitude of Adam Smith himself! The Hallowed father of capitalism and modern economics. It must be very embarrassing to conservatives of the 'Harper Government' that the leader of the Third party (at present), knows his Adam Smith better then the lacky conservatives that claim to be his soul and authentic voice.
Again this proves rather strongly, that Adam Smith was anything but a right wing neo-con wacko. To any one who has carefully read The Wealth of Nations in its unabridged massive whole, one soon see's that Adam Smith would be right at home as Finance Minister in the next Trudeau government! If you carefully read Adam Smith's greatest work and then read Capital by Karl Marx, Book I, you will soon come to the incredible realization that not only was Adam Smith the father of economics, he was the first Marxian, way before Karl Marx!
Soon - The 2015 Liberal Campaign Theme Song?
Proof of this is the creation of the concept of the idea of Surplus Labour, asking any right winger who the father of that idea was, will always lead to the answer that it was Karl Marx, which would be totally wrong. It was an idea, and a very true and important one, that Karl Marx borrowed from Adam Smith! Yes that young Justin Trudeau is indeed very well informed, indeed...
It seldom happens, however, that a great proprietor is a great improver. Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, Book III, Chapter IV
The greatest thing about the resignation of Wee Jimmy Flaherty is that the Oracle of Ottawa will never again have to look up the spelling of the word leprechaun! Canada did not survive the present turbulent past because of the Wee Jimmy, it survived despite him. And as long as the wee banty "want to be" lives, the history books will never allow him to forget it.
Wee Jimmy bails - Good Riddance!!
The Oracle of Ottawa knew we were in trouble way back around 2008, when the Minister proudly admitted during a press scrum that he never owned a stock in his life! He didn't fool around with stupid, dodgy, risky things such as that. Yes Dear Reader, lining up to buy your piece of Canada is for losers as far as the Wee Jimmy was concerned. The Oracle of Ottawa has always held the contrary view. And unlike the Wee ambulance chaser, he was able to retire at the age of 53. The Oracle of Ottawa has always believed in Canada, and has put his money where his mouth is at every opportunity. While some people with an excellent Ivy League education have to whore them selves out constantly to secure their place at the public trough.
The news of the momentus climb down came just after the stock markets closed at 4: 00 p.m. (E.S.T.) It has been reported by the 'State Broadcaster' the beloved CBC, that the wee banty minister phoned around to all the people that he thought would give a shit about his bailing after the close of the market yesterday. Well, it seems that the market has decided, it closed up over 137 points, increasing in value nearly by one whole percentage point! Yes Sir, Mr. Market is certainly sad to see the we banty minister off.
The actual reality is that Jim Flaherty was one of the, if not the worst, finance ministers in the history of Canada. Canada, again, survived, not because of Jim Flaherty and the 'Harper Government', it survived despite the 'Harper Government' and solely because of other greater men that have come before, and put in place a system so strong that not even idiots of the likes of Harper and Flaherty could do no lasting damage to it. There has been no Canadian politician that has such an ability to soil himself and our nest in public at every opportunity.
You keep hearing about that skin disease, the causes of which the Oracle of Ottawa are convinced are not physiological but rather pathological. The wee banty minister, was right from the start, in way over his head. He did not have a clue how the world really worked. All his right wing platitudes that he lived by all his life were proven in his time in office to be completely and utterly wrong and without foundation. That kind of reality check is not taken too well by fragile right wingers that confuse a bull market with their brilliance.
The Oracle of Ottawa suspects that it all came to a head over the Christmas break last. Pondering the plummeting poll numbers and having the significant other call him Justin at a rather inopportune moment made up the wee ministers mind. There was certainly no way he was going to be in the House of Commons when the next Liberal government finds all the running fetid shit that has been swept under the carpet while he was running the watch...
What you should know, you will know before all other gods or men. Homer, The Iliad, Book I.537-538, Barry B. Powell translation
You can see it all coming over the horizon now. Not even the Winter Olympics can stop the ratings for the young Justin as he throws the midwinter Liberal Party bash in Montreal this weekend. The Oracle of Ottawa dreams of the social whirl of an Ottawa with a young Prime Minister again, with a truly posh wife and young family. So much better than that pathetic present trophy wife that is dressed at Wall Mart. But don't worry folks, in a couple of months from now, it will be like the Conservatives never even existed. Just a bad dream, the rain that must fall between dynasty's.
The Messiah has been found!!
The Prime Ministers Office was not doing itself or the Prime Minister any favors by sending Pierre 'Trailer Park' Poilievre out to the wee convention as a delegate for the Conservative Party of Canada. He was as out of place as a Montreal Road street walker at a New Testament Conference. But Trailer Park is as posh as the 'Harper Government' has. Besides, the punks in short pants at the PMO know this now, they know that anything they do, is just the same as campaigning for the young Justin Trudeau.
A million dollar shot for the Messiah...
The Oracle of Ottawa wonders why the 'Harper Government' even bothered last month to load up Con Air with over 200 of Canada's most virulent messiah hunters, as they took the vagrants tour to those sand spit middle east micro states to look for the messiah and to compare notes on what the plan would be when the fortunate godhead was found. Not that the Oracle of Ottawa has anything against that kind of exodus, it is just that it still smarts that the Oracle of Ottawa had to foot the bill with HIS tax dollars. But the word in Ottawa at the time of this writing is that there will be no more vagrant tours in the future, near or far. The Conservative Bund has finally come to the realization that the Messiah is right in their midst. And of course, in truly New Testament fashion, the next cornerstone was rejected out of hand by the present builders. Ain't it the way it always goes?
Well, the guys down at the local Chabad all agree that it has all been a hell of a run, G-d was really on their side for once. They scored more elevators and wheel chair ramps that ought to last until the next final judgement! The plane tickets back to the sand spit micro state are already booked, as are all the beach houses and cabanas. The only thing left to do is get someone in to sing the El male rachamim. Meanwhile, at the time of this writing, it is time to watch the young Justins speech once again, and to count out the last remaining days of the Hideous 'Harper Government'...
Well, the Oracle of Ottawa lost his money in the coffee circle pool. The Oracle of Ottawa took the side that bet that the wee banty finance minister of the 'Harper Government' would not rise to his seat and deliver the 2014 Action Plan Budget. The Oracle of Ottawa was going on the condition that he saw the Minister in during a media clip from the Christmas break last. The Oracle of Ottawa was sure it was double pneumonia, and wagered accordingly. But all in, it has been horrendus to watch the decline of this man in the last brief while.
Wee Jimmy - All Rainbow, No Gold...
It all seemed to start after that pre exploratory trip for the big vagrants tour that happened last January, in one of the accursed sand spit states of the middle east. It seemed to the Oracle of Ottawa that the wee minister suffered some kind of reaction to the food and / or the residents. Or perhaps it was ideological, when the minister finally learned the real reason for the trip. On being informed that there was to be a hunt for the next Messiah and something called the 'million dollar shot' the poor wee minister went into his swan dive swoon. There was a huge discussion at the 'Harper Government' cabinet table when the wee finance minister announced that it seemed that to him Canada had already found its Savoir, and the Prime Minister looked at him every day in Question Period! Not wanting to offend the Gods, the Oracle of Ottawa will not name the Promised One, but I am sure you will have no problem guessing on your own.
After hearing all the tough talk from the Conservative Bund, prior to budget, the the Oracle of Ottawa was shocked at the absolute non event of the whole budget speech. The Oracle of Ottawa has never heard such a milquetoast barf of drivel in many a year. The Oracle of Ottawa has been assured that it rivals the days of R. B. Bennett. But the Oracles staff is still checking into that, at the time of this writing.
And then the hapless wee minister blew up on the media trot today, by stating that income splitting would not be the way to go in 2015, when the hoped for billions are slated to appear. And the Oracle of Ottawa was in full agreement with the minister on this one. Income splitting is regressive, in that it only serves the vested interests of the highest income earners. Yet the majority of Canadians are shocked that the core of the 'Harper Government' Bund is totally set on it. The Oracle of Ottawa has been given the answer to the problem Dear Reader. And you won't believe it! It seems that income splitting has been promised to the hard right Christian wack balls so that they could keep their wives from the Phillipines and other mail ordered third world countries at home and pregnant in the hope that one of them will give birth to the promised Messiah! You can't make this insanity up. Just ask Jason Kenny himself....
Then there is the small and rapidly growing problem of the Canada Job Grant, that the greasy fat monsters such as Jason Kennedy sells as the partnership of government and business to provide job training. The only problem with this is that on very close inspection, it comes to greatly resemble indentured labor! And hence of course it is not constitutional in Canada! No one is picking this up, yet, since it has been over one hundred years at least that we had indentured labor in Canada. But some young union lawyer will pick up on it and the Supreme Court challenges will soon be launched, effectively killing the monstrous low evil program. And no doubt one hopeful future Conservative leaders bid for front seat at the trough...
At the time of this writing Ben Heppner is probably the most famous opera singer that Canada has ever produced. He has sung all over the world, and has performed darn near all the starring roles. He has won a ton of awards including seven honorary doctorates, and the highest level of the Order of Canada that a Canadian could possibly get. He also has an exclusive contract with Deutsche Grammophon, the poshest classical music label on Earth, and the oldest established surviving record label on Earth! All signs seem to point to a very successful career.
Don't ask me! I can't figure it out either...
You would think that an opera singer with these bona fides would be constantly in the Gulfstream G650 winging his entourage from one great city to the next in an unabashed orgy of major earning power, like that old Italian guy did until he died, whose name at present and out of respect alludes the Oracle of Ottawa at the time of this writing. It seems that Ben Heppner has taken on a lesser job in the opinion of the Oracle of Ottawa.
On Saturday the Oracle of Ottawa does his coveted Saturday Routine, and while he his going from stop to stop, he has Saturday Afternoon At The Opera on the car radio. As of late the oracle of Ottawa is puzzled as to why and how someone like Ben Heppner is on the Oracles car radio as a mere host! Shouldn't I be hearing about Ben Heppner as he tours to packed recital halls, instead of hearing from him in a play by play from the deep subterranean basement studios of the CBC? What is up with that Dear Reader? What ever could be wrong with Ben Heppner?
The process of accumulation, once it is begun and carried through, is to the good of all subsequent generations. John Rawls, A Theory Of Justice, p.288
It was Thursday last that Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne announced the raising of Ontario's minimum wage to $11.00 per hour starting June first of this year, and to add salt to little Tim Hudaks wounds, it will be based on the inflation rate from now on. For the Ontario Conservatives this will be hard to fight, especially when they have right to work legislation promised in the platform.
Kathleen Wynne
As soon as the Oracle of Ottawa heard this little bomb shell on his local supper time vulgar old time media news he knew he would be in for a ton of entertainment when all the right wing, brain dead mouth breathers would soon be flooding the call in shows to express their total opposition to this pink communist announcement. But one did not even have to wait that long. Right away there were the usual hand to mouth entre-pren-whores screaming abject poverty of beginning to have to pay a living wage. All the while knowing that out back of the burger joint, there sits a brand new S class Benz sedan, with the V-12 no less, that has a garage in another McMansion some where in Barfhaven. The Oracle of Ottawa loved it.
As far as the Oracle of Ottawa is concerned he would just love to see every American franchised burger joint in Canada close. Wouldn't bother the Oracle a bit. It would free up the land and the people that were enslaved there to have a chance at something a bit more promising in the equal feast of Canadian society. The Oracle of Ottawa helps out as much as possible by never going near the greasy joints. And if you helped the Oracle of Ottawa Dear Reader, it would not be very long before they are all gone, bankrupt, every one. Simply because they cannot exist if you stop giving them money. Capitalism - nuttin' to it! Like Kevin O'leary always says, The Market Will Decide, i.e. you Dear Reader...
When the Oracle of Ottawa bought his first stock he was called a fool, then later on, having survived and thrived, he was called lucky, continuing on until the time of this writing, people just call the Oracle of Ottawa "Sir". As mentioned many times before in this humble blog, stocks have been very good to the Oracle of Ottawa. Now the Oracle of Ottawa is not Warren Buffet, nor does he ever want to be. The Oracle of Ottawa has no desire to be listed as one of the richest Canadians. The Oracle of Ottawa just wants to enjoy a benevolent level of prosperity, read all the books he has never read, so far, and write the truth to power in his blog, completely unowned by any corporate whore.
Capitalism? Nuttin' to it!
Right from the start the Oracle of Ottawa had no trouble on what and when to buy. There is a ton of literature and success stories on that. The Oracle of Ottawa is an old time value investor. He simply seeks a stock that is priced at or below its book value, between two and ten dollars and with a P/E ratio of less than 10, with a dividend between 2 and 55 percent and recently, a P/S ratio less then 3. The Oracle picks one stock every month, which he calls "Stock of the Month". Been doing it for years and years.
Soon the Oracle of Ottawa had a pretty wacking portfolio of stocks very deep into the money. But the great Oracle sweated on when to sell a stock. The Oracle of Ottawa found the decision to sell much much harder then the decision to buy. Oddly enough, every one else the Oracle knows, has the same problem in reverse. They always sell a double right away and sweat about what to buy next. Don't be like everyone else. Taking a mere double will never make you rich. The Oracle discovered that buy and hold is still very powerful, and that it is not unusual to get a ten to fifteen bagger! Ya, you read that right, 1,000 to 1,500 percent profit is not out of the ordinary with the Oracle of Ottawa.
Then, after much gifted thought, as the Oracle of Ottawa is an "85", he realized that it could all be reduced to a simple rule of thumb (ROT), or what the undergraduate text books refer to as heuristics. And the rule of thumb is: NEVER OWN A STOCK YOU WOULDN'T BUY. When the statement arrives at the end of the month, the Oracle lists all his stocks in the money by percentage difference of book to market value. Then he lists the top 19 stocks in order for the month past. Yeah it does take a while to do it by hand, especially when you own way over 100 different stocks! Then you go through the list checking the fundamentals on your favorite quote sight, and you sell the stock that has gained the most, but appears to be at the point of being unsustainable. i.e. Sell that stock that you presently own, but would never buy.
The Oracle of Ottawa will provide a simple example of two stocks. One is a very large REIT that the Oracle purchased many years ago when it was not a very large REIT. He paid $2.60 a share at the time. Today the REIT is one of the TSX 300 stocks, and is selling for nearly $27.00 a share. Another ten bagger. But it is still paying a monthly dividend with an annual yield of nearly 7 % ! And its P/E ratio is under 7! Aside from the price, this is still a value stock. Keep this one. Now going done the list, the Oracle sees that he has another stock that he bought for around two bucks that is now pushing 15 bucks a share, and the dividend yield is only a lousy 1.4%, and worst of all it is at 100 times earnings. The Oracle will sell this stock as soon as possible. It is now a growth, momentum darling. Never Own A Stock You Wouldn't Buy! Get it?
As are the generation of leaves, so are the generations of men. Homer, The Iliad, Book 6, Lines 145-146
You would think that a blogger could take some time off! Especially in that the last 539 posts, that amount to very near the length of an epic Russian novel, the Oracle of Ottawa thought he was due. But no, the idiots in short pants, now resident in the Prime Ministers Office, of the doomed 'Harper Government', have made the blogging fruit hang so low, that it is all but impossible for the Oracle of Ottawa to let it all merely slide by.
It all got started recently when that nice Toronto boy by the name of Neil Young stood up on his back legs and let it whale on the skanky Alberta tar sands, the 'Harper Government',s favorite and pet project. It was like watching a triple launch of Exocet sea skimming missiles in terminal lock on, hitting a great hulking cruiser or aircraft carrier of yesteryear. To the Oracle of Ottawa's eyes from where he as sitting in the last few days, it appears that all the missiles were a total hit right above the water line.
The 'Harper Government' realized that if the Native Peoples efforts at legal fund raising are an absolute success, they could easily go to the Supreme Court of Canada, and on a good day with the right argument, could quiet well get an injunction that could shut down the tarsands until such time, that all Treaty issues were hammered out to the Native peoples satisfaction! Imagine the carnage on the Toronto Stock Exchange, not to mention the local Canadian Tire Stores in Fort McMurray! (Also known as Newfoundland Tire and Speed).
There was of course the usual ordered wailing of the CBC of the old style vulgar media by the Prime Ministers Office to try and make old Neil look bad. But as the efforts increased in intensity, old Neil Young was looking better and better by the second. Doesn't anyone know in the Prime Ministers Office that old Neil once took on Richard Nixon in the US and totally won that one? The Oracle of Ottawa figures that if a mere rock star could shake the government of the mighty United States, the mere pale shadow of the ever increasingly doomed 'Harper Government' is all about in and done, like dinner.
No Dear Reader, Neil Young is not a rock star, he is a freakin' LEGEND!!
The Bible invariably uses the sheep as the typical apocalyptic or ideal animal. I suggested in one of my books that the reason for that is that sheep societies are perhaps more like human societies than those of any other animal: because the sheep is gregarious, stupid, and easily stampeded. Northrop Frye, Symbolism In The Bible, Lecture 4, p. 47
Well Dear Reader, it is that time of year again in the Western World. The coming end of the year holidays known as Christmas And New Years. This used to be the time of the year that the Sheeple used to drive the Oracle of Ottawa just crazy. You know the standard aggravations. Joe the Chinese peasant that tries to back into his parking spot at the mall and takes the doors and mirrors off your brand new car. Or some pathetic trot that whips out a debit card to buy a newspaper and a pack of gum. The Oracle of Ottawa could go on and on, but he won't.
Sheeple - Learn to love them....
It was just recently that the Oracle of Ottawa has had another bit of profit from his ongoing thinking about thinking project, and that is that you must come to learn to love the Sheeple. There is simply no percentage in getting all Agent Smith with them. Yes they are a disease, a virus, and they do have a lingering odor, that can really get on your nerves. But the Sheeple at the end of the day have many very important qualities. The most important of them is that Sheeple constantly want things, and there is no way to reason with them is there?
Sheeple - Wallyus Simplicus
And if you are a very smart and shrewd person, you will learn to be very interested in what the Sheeple as a herd want next. Especially if you own a ton of common stocks. When the herd of Sheeple move as a group, shit, they can really move a stock, even a once sure as hell soon to be dead and gone stock. Just ask anyone that works for Apple! Now the Sheeple don't know why they want certain things, all they know is that they want what the other Sheeple want, and they will darn near do anything to be good Sheeple to have exactly what the other guy Sheeple wants and / or already has.
The thing that the Oracle of Ottawa has learned is that the Sheeple can make you really stinking rich. You just have to be able to guess somewhat closely what you think they might possibly want in the near future. This means that you must always have a nice inventory of common stocks that in any way could be possibly affected by the Sheeples herd mentality. Just remember that once one of those stocks goes off and turns a ten to fifteen bagger, be smart enough to get rid of it right away to some other sucker, preferably one of the Sheeple who thinks that he is smarter then you.
Now the average Sheeple come in four common varieties. The Preps, The Wally's, The Trots, and the most common and dangerous, the skidmarks. Now the Preps are at the appex, the Wallys just like the Dilbert cartoon character fills up over 85% of all corporate cubicals at the time of this writing. The Trots are like specs in a Brownian motion, they just smile and hope to get along, somehow. The skidmarks are the largest, most powerful and certainly the most dangerous of all the Sheeple. They seem to come from all levels of society. There is no understanding them on an individual basis, mostly because most of them don't even know they are alive. And if you investigate into the situation, they really couldn't care less. But when they want something, look out, they can move stock markets around the world, and just as quickly forget about it when they stray on to something more desirable that they had no idea that they wanted....
Two wrongs can make a right in the sense that the best available arrangement may contain a balance of imperfections, an adjustment of compensating injustices. John Rawls, A Theory Of Justice, p. 279
Well Dear Reader it has only been a few weeks now that the new plastic 'Harper Money' version of the new ten dollar bill has been released into general circulation here in Canada. There are problems with it of course, the major one being the Oracle of Ottawa is still wondering who is that guy that they have on the ten dollar bill?
As you can clearly see above, this the old ten dollar bill. It is part of the Canadian Journey Series of banknotes. All the picture bits, including the portrait, were done by the Canadian Banknote Company, that has a very long history in Canada of doing fine work on Canadian banknotes. The portrait is of course of Sir John A. Macdonald. And the likeness of the portrait is just perfect to the photograph from which it originates.The Oracle of Ottawa can easily prove that.
Sir John A. Macdonald - 1878
The picture is from the old chieftan period around 1878. Notice how perfect the image on the bill matches the photograph in the finest detail. Notice the art of the engraver, how there is no mistakes in any respect of proportion? That Dear Reader is called craft. Now let us look at the image of Sir John on the new ten dollar bill, shall we?
Sir John A. Macdonald - Right??
The image on the new ten dollar bill is the one on the right on the picture above. The Oracle of Ottawa doesn't know who that is either. The image is said to be taken from the 1875 period. Well let us match them up shall we?
Sir John A. Macdonald - 1875
As you can readily see Dear Reader, that the image on the new ten dollar bill looks hardly nothing like the photograph of the Great Man at that time. But this bill was not done at Canadian Banknote. As a matter of fact the Oracle of Ottawa cannot find out on open sources where the new monster john bill was made. As you can see the rendition of Canada's founding father is bordering on obscene. You will also note Dear Reader that the actual released note does not match the Bank of Canada Specimen note that they used to market the actual note!! Why it actually looks like the guy who did the note portrait was on crack.
But wait! The wee banty Finance Minister of the 'Harper Government' at the time of this writing does know a crack head that also just happens to own a big chunk of a family commercial printing plant, you don't think do ya? The crack theory continues to build when you inspect the note more closely and discover that the Governors signature is that of Mark Carney! But Mark Carney is longer the Governor of the Bank of Canada and hasn't been since July 1, 2013! That Dear Reader is what a collector would call an error...
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