Sunday, September 28, 2014

China's Old Men - Truth or Dare?

If a lion could talk, we wouldn't be able to understand it.
Wittgenstein, Philosophy of Psychology - A Fragment, Sec. 327

Those public demonstrations must be pretty bad in Hong Kong, as they even climbed to the top of the Canadian news cycle today. The paper mache Goddess of Democracy ought to be making it's appearance about anytime now. The Oracle of Ottawa is really enjoying watching China's old men twist. This ain't 1989 Dear Reader! There is so much more at stake at the time of this writing. Back in 1989 China did not have access to the massive and gullible capital markets of the Western Free World.

China's old men - trapped by the ideological balls?

Why it was only last week that Jack 'Forrest Gump' Ma hit up the New York Stock Exchange for over twenty billion real American dollars in that monster Variable Interest Entity IPO of the previously unknown Alibaba electronic bulletin board! The Oracle of Ottawa spent all the week before it went public to inform investors to beware, and that it was really only a two dollar preferred debt offering. Of course the Oracle of Ottawa caught a ton of heat online about it, but come tomorrow we will soon see who was right won't we?

The real question here Dear Reader, is Truth or Dare, Money or Power? Will the demented old peasants of China's corrupt and inbred politburo stomp the citizens of Hong Kong in the social and journalistic media light of the world like they did in Bejing in 1989? And if they did what will be the opening prices of all the Chinese variable interest entities that trade at present on the New York Stock Exchange, come the opening bell on Monday morning?

It is real ignorant, real world irony, of classical proportions that the option chains on Alibaba start trading tomorrow morning! And the Oracle of Ottawa's feelers went all fuzzy, when it was reported  on CNBC last week that some unknown hedge fund laid a huge short position on Alibaba, of 2.4 - 3.6% ! of the outstanding issue. Someone is real cocky or perhaps very well informed, perhaps a bunch of merchant banks from Hong Kong perhaps?

There were many reports about how many Chinese politburo members were "partners" in the last Alibaba IPO. Do you really think they are going to risk all that loot for the sake of a municipal election in Hong Kong? Will the old Chinese men cut the nose off of their very lost faces for mere ideological purity? The Oracle of Ottawa has heard that the Chinese can eat damn near anything, but ideology? Perhaps with a black bean sauce and some Deer Penis Wine...?

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