Another OLG Paradox Of Probability

In stochastic processes the future is not uniquely determined, but we have at least probability relations enabling us to make predictions.
William Feller, An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications, Third Edition, Vol. I, p. 420

The Oracle of Ottawa has the grand pleasure to be a resident of Ottawa, Ontario. And in the Province of Ontario we have a wonderful organization known as the Ontario Lottery And Gaming Corporation.  The OLG is a house of many games. One of the most interesting is a sports game known as Pools. It is just like an office sports pool that you play at work, but Pools is an office pool that has as its "subspace" the whole population of Ontario! (population, 13,505,900)

Lesson? - Probability is Spooky...

  As you can well imagine, things can get pretty exciting well into the NFL football season, where by one of the most popular bets in Ontario is the weekly series of NFL games. There can be up to 16 games, from Thursday night to Monday night. For five dollars you can take your best shot, straight up, and come Tuesday, the winner(s) are announced. If you can pick 14-16 NFL games, straight up, you could turn $5.00 into several hundred thousand dollars! And it being Canada, this will all be sweet and tax free.

HP-11C - Good tools are very important...

If the Oracle of Ottawa's old brain is working correctly, The weekly NFL Pool was the first and only Pool in the Province of Ontario. Then of course came the weekend NHL hockey Pool, then the MLB baseball Pool. With a hold back of any where from 40% - 60% the good old OLG ran with a really good thing until at the time of this writing, there are pools offered every day.  Which is proper and fitting, fair and wide open.

Most of the time, the results are to be totally expected. Such as the days when 14 baseball games are on the list, and the results are that only 2- 4 people were able to pick 12 of the 14 offered games. For this awesome feat, the reward can be several thousand dollars! This, for those that know of such things, fits the normal curve about just right. And tomorrow there will another list. Now remember, this is a pool, you do not have to get all the games right, you only have to be the punter or punters that gets the most games right, result, you get all the money, Sweet!  

William Feller - Awesome beyond words...

For example, early last week, there was a card offered of a mere 10 night MLB games. If you have tried it Dear Reader, you know that handicapping MLB baseball is all but impossible. But on this day one punter in Ontario got all 10 games, and in turn took all the pool money, which was north of $20,000 bucks Canadian, great work, if you can snag it!

On Thursday last was offered Card #99, it consisted of all the pre-season NFL games from August 15, 2013 to August 17, 2013 a small list of only 14 pre-season NFL games. If you think that major league baseball is hard to cap, you also know that regular season NFL games is an awesome feat of capping prowess. But who in heavens name would be crazy enough to even try to cap 14 pre-season NFL games? Surely a total impossibility?


Then the little fridge light came on in the Oracles brain, give it a random guess, by a very possible stroke of luck, the Oracle could possibly pick say 12 out of 14 games and share the prize with say at least six other randomizers. Well it was this fine Sunday morning when the Oracle checked his ticket and discovered that he only could guess 7 out of 14. Pure text book expectation. But the Oracle of Ottawa was shocked to discover that 66 punters in Ontario were able to predict 14 out of 14 pre-season NFL games!! The odds of performing such a feat of picking 14 of 14 games are 1: 16,384! That means that about 1,081,344 tickets at five bucks each would have to be sold, more or less. For a gross pot of $5,406,720 +/-. before withholding percentage of the house take, assuming 40%, would leave a prize pool about 3,244,032, which would have meant 66 prizes of $49,152! The actual prize that was awarded to these awesome subset of punters was a mere $555.30 each!! Hmmm...

This of course means, and makes very much sense, that only a very very small subset of the population of the Province of Ontario actually played. But excuse me! Sixty six people of this small subset were able to pick all 14 of 14 winners!???  While the greatest capper in America alive today Kenneth Massey, could only manage a paltry prediction of 10 out of 14!? If one was really cynical one would blurt out that the only way this could possibly happen is if you were somehow able to buy your tickets after all the games were actually played! But the Oracle of Ottawa wouldn't think of doing a nasty thing like that....

'Harper Government' Progress Report

Yours be th' advantage all, mine the revenge.
John Milton, Paradise Lost, Book II,  Line 987

Dismantling a great liberal country is a lot like cutting down a very large tree. First you have to get in the base cut and then insert the wedges. The 'Harper Government' did all this in the "hanging by a hair" minority governments. Now that they somehow sucked Canadians in for the majority, they are bringing out the chain saws. Their first action  that was destined to make Canada a better place was to kill the per vote subsidy.You could see the ideology taking hold. In actual reality it didn't make any sense, but it is not destined for the world the Tory's believe should exist. Logic and sense have nothing to do with it.

Timber?

Then came the draconian attack on organized labour, with the disgraceful interference in the Canada Post dispute that had not even got started! Then the rigged "arbitration" in the Air Canada strike. What in hell are the Tory's going to do when they have a real labour dispute? Call out the Army? The end result of this is that the average worker is soon going to deduce that crime is a better career path then honest toil. History is littered with examples of class war. I will leave it to the reader as an exercise to list all the past examples.

The pace will pick up...

But this of course was covered by the strategists. Hence the introduction and quick passage of the insane "omnibus crime bill". Debate was cut off not because of the urgency of the bill, but rather there was no one intelligent enough to answer the increasingly tough questions that the Opposition were starting to ask! But there is a real play included in this bill. The costs of which are going to be downloaded to the provinces. This will cause a fight with the provinces that will allow the Tory's under the guise of national security to replace all those expensive pesky unionized peace and prison guards with corporate minimum wage mall cops! Mark the Oracle of Ottawas words... Wait for it... 

Great Canadian governments of the past saw further because they stood on the shoulders of giants. As we now approach the Tory's favorite time of the year Remembrance Day, which they just love, since it is the freest and easiest ride that they enjoy all year, they will try to see farther by standing on the ideological mound of the fallen. A sombre tear will be shed at the ceremony, but not until the "state broadcaster" gets the correct good side shot. Then back to the House on Monday to cut the Veteran Affairs budget some more! The winged sycophants of Satan's minions circle high above the Peace Tower in full wing. 

I never said a word....

Is Vic Toews Signalling The End Of The Charter Of Rights?

I am concern'd for the condition of the learned world, which lies under such a deplorable ignorance in all these particulars.
David Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature, Book I, p. 271

Sometimes you hear something and you go into shock. The Oracle of Ottawa was so shocked and offended by it that he was simply unable to post as per usual last night. But after the passage of more than 24 hours and another look at the tape, the Oracle of Ottawa must address this incident. It is based on an exchange in Question Period in the House of Commons on November 02, 2011. It was recorded on CPAC and you can watch it here.

The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms....

It involved an exchange between Joe Comartin of the NDP, a prominent defense lawyer, who is giving up a whole lot of billable hours to sit in the Royal Opposition as Opposition House Leader, and the Conservative Party of Canada resident legal genius Vic Toews. Presently faking it through the cabinet post of Minister of Public Safety. If you are frequent viewer of Question Period you know that Vic Toews is no match against Joe Comartin. The sign of a great defense attorney is to be able to get the bad guy to say the truth that he had no intention in his worst nightmare of ever saying out loud. Joe Comartin got the "bad guy" to spill his guts...again...

Joe Comartin: If they are so hell bent on ramming through this bill, will they at least listen to the three provinces that have come forward and said that we are not paying the shot.Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, are not paying the shot. You pay the shot.

Vic Toews: Well Mr. Speaker I do respect my colleague opposite but I know that he comes from a long distinguished career of defending criminals as a defense criminal lawyer, our perception is a little bit different, our perception is a little bit different... (House Goes NUTS!!)

Speaker: Order, Order!! (Vic Toews microphone cut off...)

My chin dropped! A cold rush went up my spine! Did I hear this right? Did I actually hear this? Yes I did! Is the Minister of Public Safety telling the House and me that the Conservatives have other plans for Charter Rights, especially sections 7 through to section 14? The Oracle of Ottawas experience as a seasoned tory watcher is that such utterances are "tells" or Freudian slips. They accuarately foretell the future. The more base and stupid the utterer, the sooner it will happen. And the present front line of the Conservative Party of Canada is appearing very thick indeed! Remember, you heard it here, second!

Canada is verily circling the bowl! Vic Toews is no Lord Acton!

Every thing secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear discussion and publicity.
Lord Acton, Letter, (23 January 1861), published in Lord Acton and his Circle (1906) by Abbot Gasquet, Letter 24

Baird - Lebel Tells: There Goes The Majority!!

'Tis impossible for the mind to preserve any notion of difference betwixt two bodies of the same nature existing in the same place at the same time.
David Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature, p. 41

When Olivia Chow stands to her seat in Question Period and all but losses her still strong Chinese accent and sounds like a matron that was born and raised Rosedale, you know the NDP smell blood! They smell the weakness and the fear like a pack of wolves which can tell which moose in the herd will be dinner tonight! Now group this with the blatant and oh so transparent tells of the front bench Conservative sock-puppet mental midgets and it is very easy indeed for most any blogger, even those that are not as intelligent as the Oracle of Ottawa, to immediately start writing about the future in advance of a minimum of two weeks!

Conservative Minister...

You know that the opposition has touched the royal blue g-spot when the old tells start to show. This was very apparent in the question period of September 27, 2011. All that stuff that the NDP and the Liberals are saying about "Two Tier" Tony Clement must be true! When ever they ask "Two Tier" a question in the House, the Minister fails to stand to his seat and be forthright with the people of Canada! Charlie Angus is feeding like Jaws at an orphanage beach day! It is the great man John Baird that takes the questions for old Tony. And during the Tuesday Question Period Minister Baird was talking very slowly and his voice has dropped two and a half octaves! All us old hands of watching Question Period knows what this means! The answer forthcoming is an answer, just not the truth...And it seems to be spreading! It seems that Minister Denis Lebel, in utter panic, has forgotten how to speak English under certain question topics about major infrastructure! This  blog writer surmises that it is the Ministers conflict with his inner PQ...Selling out can extract a large price bonhomme!!

Charlie Angus - Ready for Question Period...

It is hard to believe, but it all gets better! It seems the real right wing wacko's are stirring in their usual pathological frustration. One Brad Trost has unloosed Steve Harpers favorite ghost from the Tory hope chest. Yes that, "no abortion for any reason", hell cat has been re-loosed! Complete with the "resurrection" of one Charles McVety, I told the party whip that they should have used two stones to keep him from rising from the dead, but noooo...Sometimes a savings is no bargain. The majority should start to shrink any day now, just like I told you months ago.

And now Let Us Pray, my fellow Canadians, really, I am not joking...

Where O' Where Has My Pat Bolland Gone?

The woman said to the serpent, "We may eat fruit from from the trees in the garden, but God did say, 'You must not eat fruit from the tree that is in the middle of the garden, and you must not touch it, or you will die.' "
Genesis, 3:2, New International Version, Study Bible, p. 10

Usually, in Canadian media, when the lead anchor of a show is not present, a reason is given right away. Such as; "Pat Bolland is on assignment..." or "Pat Bolland is under the weather, and we expect him back shortly..."
But as you may have noticed, Pat Bolland of Sun News TV has been missing in action for two days now (in a row) with no explanation whatsoever! Could it be that not only Bell Media has given Sun News TV the dump? Could it be that the highly respected (until lately) Mr. Bolland has had that recurring nightmare of Moses selling his soul on E-Bay? And has wisely bailed from the great Sun News TV? With his soul still intact. Apparently the ratings are a disaster. In last place behind CNN! And have you watched CNN lately? A silent test pattern could get higher ratings than CNN today, well, except Sun News TV...

Sitting in for Pat Bolland this morning was none other than Michael Coren! My he is moving up the right wing food chain at an amazing rate! Alex Pierson was not amused. I did not, until this morning, think it was possible to see some ones skin crawl on television. But I saw it this morning. She was sitting with her legs crossed, and at the maximum distance away from Mr Coren as possible. "On with the show, this is it!" said the Rabbit....

Sun News TV Training Camp....

Wait for it... I was amazed at the overnight transformation of the appearance of Jacqui Delaney! This is usually a sign of the war within reaching its last stages... Deep inside, the make over is a defense of an internal struggle, if I look different, no one will associate this dreadful mistake of a train wreck with the old once valuable me....Poor thing, I hope she can hang on long enough for Unemployment Insurance.

Meanwhile the The Sun Brain Trust is in a panic. We need an "event"! There was even talk of hooking Krista up with Ezra, and even footing the complete bill for an arranged marriage! But, alas, the blood test was a double fail....the human resources manual (Lord of the Flies) was again consulted... Study continues....

A tribute to the next Conservative Disaster.....

John Baird - The Devastating Tell

I learned that it is the weak who are cruel, and that gentleness is to be expected only from the strong.
~ Leo Rosten

Do you remember that Conservative Prime Minister we once had about twenty-thirty years ago? Do you remember when he lied his voice would get lower and lower? By the end of his period in office he was sounding like Feodor Chaliapin! Oy! Those were the days weren't they?

Cut to the present day. One the most infamous Tory's of the monstrous Blue Machine has provided us and will for a short time more, provide us, with entertaining mirth. I speak of course of the great man John Baird.
Have you noticed that when all is going his way, he is loud brash and slow? But when his little micro-dic is in the pencil sharpner his voice drops to a pleading near whisper and speeds up? I noticed this today as they old vulgar media caught him off guard on a question about misleading parliament on that rather epic money spending piss-up known as the G8 Summit held out in the sticks somewhere in Nowhere Ontario, I believe in the riding of one Tony (I didn't do it...) Clement! It was mighty entertaining...

Whadda ya mean? "I don't like Dim Sung"?

And were you watching when the Tory war room brain trust had him go out in front of the National Media to say very quickly and in a low, low voice how the Tory's were not going to gut the Federal Civil Service? Of course he was telling the truth! It then became quite obvious that the Tory secret agenda in a majority government is to dismantle our Health Care system. And just like that union busting governor in the States, some billionaire has probably offered to fly him down to an exclusive tax-haven to show him and all a "really good time" if as and when he can pull it off. My reward; a bag of quarters in front of the slut machine of my choice! I mean slot machine... Or maybe a speaking slot at the next Bilderberg Group hoe-down...

But as I have discovered, and related to you, something weird is in the air here in Ottawa. Things just are not going to turn as per the Tory playbook. Forces that have not ever been dealt with are at this very moment coiling themselves up in rage to strike down the evil man love empire.The case of the missing Tory campaign signs continue. There is hardly a one to be seen anywhere in Ottawa! Could it be that Mr. Minister Baird is soon to learn the meaning of "Flash Mob" ?

So the Tory blue sinking scum were lying at the time! Well, well. Notice the speed and pitch of Bairds voice. A classic tell.....