Another OLG Paradox Of Probability

In stochastic processes the future is not uniquely determined, but we have at least probability relations enabling us to make predictions.
William Feller, An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications, Third Edition, Vol. I, p. 420

The Oracle of Ottawa has the grand pleasure to be a resident of Ottawa, Ontario. And in the Province of Ontario we have a wonderful organization known as the Ontario Lottery And Gaming Corporation.  The OLG is a house of many games. One of the most interesting is a sports game known as Pools. It is just like an office sports pool that you play at work, but Pools is an office pool that has as its "subspace" the whole population of Ontario! (population, 13,505,900)

Lesson? - Probability is Spooky...

  As you can well imagine, things can get pretty exciting well into the NFL football season, where by one of the most popular bets in Ontario is the weekly series of NFL games. There can be up to 16 games, from Thursday night to Monday night. For five dollars you can take your best shot, straight up, and come Tuesday, the winner(s) are announced. If you can pick 14-16 NFL games, straight up, you could turn $5.00 into several hundred thousand dollars! And it being Canada, this will all be sweet and tax free.

HP-11C - Good tools are very important...

If the Oracle of Ottawa's old brain is working correctly, The weekly NFL Pool was the first and only Pool in the Province of Ontario. Then of course came the weekend NHL hockey Pool, then the MLB baseball Pool. With a hold back of any where from 40% - 60% the good old OLG ran with a really good thing until at the time of this writing, there are pools offered every day.  Which is proper and fitting, fair and wide open.

Most of the time, the results are to be totally expected. Such as the days when 14 baseball games are on the list, and the results are that only 2- 4 people were able to pick 12 of the 14 offered games. For this awesome feat, the reward can be several thousand dollars! This, for those that know of such things, fits the normal curve about just right. And tomorrow there will another list. Now remember, this is a pool, you do not have to get all the games right, you only have to be the punter or punters that gets the most games right, result, you get all the money, Sweet!  

William Feller - Awesome beyond words...

For example, early last week, there was a card offered of a mere 10 night MLB games. If you have tried it Dear Reader, you know that handicapping MLB baseball is all but impossible. But on this day one punter in Ontario got all 10 games, and in turn took all the pool money, which was north of $20,000 bucks Canadian, great work, if you can snag it!

On Thursday last was offered Card #99, it consisted of all the pre-season NFL games from August 15, 2013 to August 17, 2013 a small list of only 14 pre-season NFL games. If you think that major league baseball is hard to cap, you also know that regular season NFL games is an awesome feat of capping prowess. But who in heavens name would be crazy enough to even try to cap 14 pre-season NFL games? Surely a total impossibility?


Then the little fridge light came on in the Oracles brain, give it a random guess, by a very possible stroke of luck, the Oracle could possibly pick say 12 out of 14 games and share the prize with say at least six other randomizers. Well it was this fine Sunday morning when the Oracle checked his ticket and discovered that he only could guess 7 out of 14. Pure text book expectation. But the Oracle of Ottawa was shocked to discover that 66 punters in Ontario were able to predict 14 out of 14 pre-season NFL games!! The odds of performing such a feat of picking 14 of 14 games are 1: 16,384! That means that about 1,081,344 tickets at five bucks each would have to be sold, more or less. For a gross pot of $5,406,720 +/-. before withholding percentage of the house take, assuming 40%, would leave a prize pool about 3,244,032, which would have meant 66 prizes of $49,152! The actual prize that was awarded to these awesome subset of punters was a mere $555.30 each!! Hmmm...

This of course means, and makes very much sense, that only a very very small subset of the population of the Province of Ontario actually played. But excuse me! Sixty six people of this small subset were able to pick all 14 of 14 winners!???  While the greatest capper in America alive today Kenneth Massey, could only manage a paltry prediction of 10 out of 14!? If one was really cynical one would blurt out that the only way this could possibly happen is if you were somehow able to buy your tickets after all the games were actually played! But the Oracle of Ottawa wouldn't think of doing a nasty thing like that....

Margaret Thatcher - The Other Eulogy

Why does the way of the guilty prosper? Why do all who are treacherous thrive?
Jeremiah, 12:1, NRSV

The Oracle of Ottawa first heard of Margaret Thatchers passing while still in bed this morning on the CBC Radio News. The first impression that crossed the Oracles mind was there goes the old style vulgar media's TV schedule for about the next two weeks. She had a nice long retirement didn't she? And as a Baroness, she also sat in the House of Lords. And, much to the amazement to the Oracle of Ottawa, she was on the speaking tour until quiet recently! So lets see, one government pension, one pay check from the House of Lords, and those wacking speaking fees! Talk about triple dipping! Isn't it ironic that as the warrior for unrestricted capitalism, she sure got to feed deep at the trough of the public tit. And to add insult too injury, she seems to have had the utter luxury that she didn't deserve, of dying in her sleep, no doubt with her face to the wall. 

Margaret Thatcher - Ronald Reagan

 Maggy Thatcher was born a no count shop girl. She made full use of all the socialist tools of the time to better her life. And then she spent the rest of her life making damn sure that your kids will never have the same opportunities! No doubt many a tear will be shed all over the United Kingdom tonight, after enjoying a good horse and kidney pie and over the best adulterated scotch. No doubt there will be many people at her funeral, mostly old trade unionists, that want to make sure that she really is dead. Did you hear that she passed away at suite of rooms at the Ritz Hotel in London! Where is your grandmother dying? How utterly evil and criminal is that? The ninth circle of hell is certainly going to be receiving a monster upgrade shortly.

The real legacy of Maggy Thatcher is that she was the sharp tip of the spear point of the New World Order, that we all suffer under today, and will continue to suffer under, until we finally get wise and take our world and lives back. She was instrumental in the "downfall" of the Eastern Block. Now we have gangster states, that makes the old days of grey Marxist - Leninism look some what idyllic! Is your life as a working person better now or was it your parents and grandparents that really enjoyed life more than you as you are sweating through it now? I know it is embarrassing, you don't have to give an answer.

But there was the Falklands, wasn't there? Well after thirty years it has all finally dawned on the Oracle of Ottawa that Maggy didn't really give a sheeps shit about a bunch of sheep herders far and away. It appears now to the Oracle of Ottawa that it was all about who was going to dominate the huge export weapons business. And it sure as hell was not going to be the French! A little MI-5 and a dash of MI-6 and you can make anything happen. All for the good of the GNP! And the friends that you are dancing with at the time. Mark the Oracles words folks, it will all come out about 50 to 75 years from now, the history of the future will not match the history of today, of that you can be most certain.  

 In closing, the Oracle of Ottawa has to agree wholeheartedly and with out any reservation with the statement of Gerry Adams:  "the great hurt done to the Irish and British people during her time as British prime minister. Here in Ireland her espousal of old draconian militaristic policies prolonged the war and caused great suffering." And that war in all its flavors still goes on. And it will continue until we finally rise up and end it, once and for all...

 The above represents the Oracle of Ottawas sentiments exactly...

City of Ottawa - State of The Burg(h)ers

I affect not reserves, which I do not feel. 
Federalist Papers, Alexander Hamilton, No. 1

The Oracle of Ottawa has recently become more and more befuddled at the actions of Gentleman Jim the mayor and his merry band of burg(h)ers. The vulgar media coverage of the great mans latest obsession to score Ottawa its very own gambling house just boggles the ordinary mind. And his obsession that it has to be "downtown" in Ottawa, which is the federal capital of Canada, is all rather appearing  to resemble salient behavior. Yet like a dog chasing a hubcap, he just pushes on. His first light bulb of an idea, to have said new casino in the old train station, which is now known as the Ottawa Conference Center was shot down in flames by the National Capital Commission, as was the brilliant idea to build it in the new disposable building recently completed at Rideau Center.

Gentleman Jim beckons to the Lead Nugget Casino....

 It has not crossed the little hay seeds mind that any Casino in downtown Ottawa would be less than two miles away from the very posh Casino already in operation in Gatineau Quebec! The befuddled mayor fails to realize that Ottawa has been beat to the gambling dollar punch by several years by the Frenchmen. And any Casino built in Ottawa, that will certainly look like a McDonalds burger joint,  certainly won't endear the spoiled rotten low rollers of Ottawa!

Let us put all these recent events into perspective dear reader. The mayor and council of the City of Ottawa want to build a new Casino, posher than the one in Quebec, very close by. The City of Ottawa is going to build an insane "light rail" system and subway for a mere 1.5 billion dollars, starting anytime soon. We are screwed into a public -private partnership in Landsdowne Park that is ready over budget... In the meantime people are driving their cars into massive "sink holes" that was actually the failure of a structure that hadn't been looked at in God Knows how long! The people of Ottawa cannot even afford to get their garbage picked up once a week! Those poor souls living the burbs are terrified at when the next overloaded garbage truck is going to collide with another garbage truck or just end up in the living room! All in an attempt by City HR to make all the Garbage truck drivers, better truck drivers and better garbage men, with two or more routes a day! You can do it if you TRY!!!  Well it appears not.... The small town cheap hypocrisy is simply astounding, and will prove soon enough to be utterly fatal.

Yes, we will get that shit hole casino, it won't be downtown though. The Oracle of Ottawa has realized just today where it will in the end, be situated. Due to the inability to attract retailers to the Landsdowne Live site, and the utterly laughable suggestion that any one will shell out fifty million dollars to get their name on a certain train wreck, which has as about as much of chance of happening as Gentleman Jim catching AIDS. Oh yeah.. About as much chance of being hit by lightning... Gentleman Jim's  Lead Nugget Casino will be the feature attraction!! The people of the Glebe will no doubt be thrilled!

The year is 2016. The site is Landsdowne Live, Gentleman Jim's Lead Nugget Casino beckons, can you feel the ambiance??

Why Does Google Suck?

Reality never corresponds perfectly to logic; neither, therefore, can our analysis.
Leslie Lipson, The Great Issues of Politics, (Seventh Edition), p. 15

You know when a large corporate over - whore changes something un - announced in the dog days of summer it can only  be seen as nefarious, that is, really not in your best interest. Such was the feeling of the Oracle of Ottawa as he opened his You-Tube page on that fateful day last summer recently passed. The Oracle of Ottawa has no idea what the Google organization is trying to prove by making all their products and platforms worse and less than they were the day before. Perhaps it is a misguided marketing strategy?

Another Netscape?

Well after a ton of tinkering and resetting of bookmarks the Oracle of Ottawa, managed to get some semblance of a usable home page for his you-tube fix. Now the Oracle of Ottawa  was once a real Google fan, and a very early adaptor. But now, recently, he has really been tested. Grave doubts are entering his mind. So much so, that he removed Google News as his home page, and replaced it with the CBC news page. The Google business can only survive if you loan it your eyeballs. No eyeballs, there will be no Google, and it can happen very, very fast. Remember Netscape?   

Google shitter connected to the internet...

Anyone would think that it couldn't get any worse. But you will always be wrong. Last night all Blogger users were forced to use the new and improved blogger interface. Now the Oracle of Ottawa sent "feedback" several times complaining that the new blogger interface is no improvement for bloggers! Of course none of this ever gets read. It is just corporate over - whore standard action to make you think that YOU actually matter. Well, sucker, you don't! You would think that Google could let people just choose between what type of interface they want. That seemed to be the pattern in the past, and the Oracle of Ottawa just can't understand why Google would change that.

The major problem I have with the new interface is that the dashboard is squished. The stats graph is all distorted due to that useless left hand side tool bar. That tool bar should be placed across the top, out of the way. What I think the overall problem is, is that the new "interface" is designed for those stupid new screens that are all but standard today.  The ones that are like movie screens. The Oracle of Ottawa thinks that really sucks and clings to his old T-41 with that nice traditional square screen that is now considered so uncool. Also, it has crossed the Oracle of Ottawa's mind that the redesign also has a lot to do with marketing, that is to help harvest your poor ragged ass with useless money gobbling products that you don't need. The Oracle of Ottawa ponders how many bloggers will be lost in the near future, as the people in the third world can not just run out and get a new computer? But the guy at Google Headquarters, that shits in the high tech toilet, that massages his ring piece and nuts after he has a granola dump, would not even be thinking of that! Now would he?

Not a joke anymore, is it?

Tips For Tourists To Canada

Since truth and falsity are opposites, falsity is to be found where it is natural for truth to be. It occupies the space reserved for truth.
Alexander Broadie, The Oxford Companion To Philosophy, p. 47

It is the hope of every civilized man that he will have one good idea or perform one service that will live on after he is gone. Canada is quickly becoming another place. It will soon be no longer the peaceable kingdom that I have known all my life. This is a heads up for all the high dollar tourists from the European Union and countries of the British Commonwealth. People coming from South America, Asia, and all you Talliban lads coming home for leave will be right at home in the new Canada.

Pack this! Essential for travel in Canada!!

We now have a right wing conservative government that is more crazy than the two terms of George W. Bush! The omnibus crime bill is now in second reading and is all but a done deal. Six plants or six seeds, will get you over ten years. Mandatory sentence, no appeal. This week apparently, the long gone registry legislation is planned to be introduced. You will not have to register most long guns such as rifles and shotguns. The Federal Conservatives have let it be known in the House of Commons that the present registry databases will not be turned over to Provinces that want to start a provincial gun registry! You can watch the actual footage of the senile Vic Toews say so to the members, live on CPAC. We are suffering the beginnings of a total social breakdown.

Rent the LAV III instead of an ordinary car...

Early in the new year, anyone will be able to go into any hardware store or big name box store produce cash and walk out with a fire arm. It is all as simple as that. Of course when this starts there will be no safe place. I feel that is my responsibility to warn you  to pack a very good quality bullet proof vest. If possible avoid renting an ordinary car. I strongly recommend the LAV III which will provide decent armour protection up to the .50 calibre size.... Better yet, I would strongly suggest that you make other arrangements if at all possible. This will be certainly be no place to honeymoon or to bring a family to.

Pack one of these - we can't take care of you....

The Oracle of Ottawa has lived a good life and has many pleasant memories of his trips to what is today the European Union. I had a wonderful time, and I really feel obligated to warn you guys away. This is not the worst of it I am afraid to tell you dear reader. There is still the Baby-Port legislation to be introduced. Probably early in the new year. If you want a detailed understanding of this upcoming legislation just get a copy of The Hand Maid's Tale by Margaret Atwood. you will pretty well have the whole picture after reading the book. Then, after that, it is rumoured that the Sharia Law Family Values Bill will be tabled, another omnibus piece of legislation designed to wring any remaining vestiges of liberality from Canadian society...

Soon every mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, social darwinist will be armed to the teeth! You have been warned..